New Years Day brings sunshine, but lookout for a MONSTER STORM now being fueled for the weekend. We're studying the national forecast models and I will be right back with an update. Hang tight, B.A.
5:51 PM - New Year's Eve.
Ok, I'm back. Took a long hard look at the four forecast models. They are all telling the same story and it's not bobbling around: POTENTIALLY EPIC SNOW COMING TO TAHOE THIS WEEKEND. You wouldn't believe how excited people are getting around here. Buying groceries, filling up gas tanks, planning school snow days.
Ok, let me see if I can explain it in a way that everyone can understand.
Short Term (New Years Day, Wednesday, Thursday) - BEAUTIFUL SKI/RIDE DAYS
The ridge of high pressure has moved into the area. Expect Sunny skies and clear nights. Northeast winds will keep it cool today with highs in the mid 30’s. Tuesday and Wednesday the winds shift southerly ahead of an approaching storm system. Temps should warm into the upper 30’s and low 40’s by Wednesday. With the clear nights temps should plunge into the teens and single digits, with a slight inversion so only the 20’s on top of the hill.
Extended (This Weekend) - POWDER BEYOND YOUR WILDEST DREAMS
I don’t want to over-hype the storm but the way it looks is that people need to be prepared for this storms potential. The National Weather Service has posted a public statement bulletin that I think you might want to read.
Basically it states that this could be one of the top-five three day storm totals in the past 50 years. The last time a storm this big hit the Sierra was the end of March 1995. I don’t know if I am on that band wagon quite yet but there will be plenty of snow.
A cold low pressure trough coming down from the Gulf of Alaska with join forces with a subtropical jetstream full of moisture that is being fed by the MJO we have been talking about out near Hawaii. The strong low will push two storms into the West Coast on Thursday and again Friday-Saturday, and then the cold front itself blasts through with a ton of cold and snow on Sunday. The snow levels look to start out around lake level and then lower after the first storm. It should be all snow for the mountains above 7000 feet. At lake level it could start as rain but will mostly be snow. Temps will be right around 32 during the day and the upper 20’s at night. The ratio will be 10:1 but with 5-10 inches of liquid that is 50-100 inches of snow. Right now it is a little early for snow amount forecasting. The models are astonishingly in agreement for the 4-7 day forecast. They all match each other. So because of that, if the model consensus is correct it could be up to 10 feet on the Sierra Crest. The winds on the ridges will be in excess of 100 mph. This will make for blizzard conditions and gigantic drifts. It will also help to push the moisture over the crest and create plenty of snow in the Tahoe Basin. I’ll post again Wed. and hopefully have a better idea of snow totals.
TIP: watch nws.noaa.gov as well. Just click on California, then Truckee, and then on the special weather statements.
Be sure and read our Deep Snow safety tips while you get ready for THE SKI/RIDE OF YOUR LIFE!
My friends and I planned a trip this weekend and are staying at the Hyatt. We're driving up from Los Angeles Thursday and plan on leaving Sunday. Do you think we should change our plans to arrive Wednesday night instead? I'm afraid the rodes may be closed if we drive up Thursday. I'm SO stoked about the storm. I just hope we can get up there!
Posted by: Rod | December 31, 2007 at 07:35 PM
Rod, it depends upon what time of day you'll be arriving on Thursday. Get your mug of jo and leave L.A. EARLY. Carry chains or plan on buying some on the way. It's rare I-80 actually closes, and you will be coming at the start and leaving towards the end. Your call bro, but this is going to be a weekend for the record books!
Posted by: B.A. | January 01, 2008 at 07:54 AM
BA: on the road now - thanks bro! How's everything looking up there?
Posted by: Rod | January 03, 2008 at 10:27 AM